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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation

31K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.1%

45%55%
Floor48.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.6%.

Measured over 31K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 9.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 31K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
31K
Best context
54.4% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
45.6% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
90.4%
Draws
9.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: −0.4% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 34.5% at 0-999, 51.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (51 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (135 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (180 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (429 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (120 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (583 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (2,175 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (379 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (1,633 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (7,224 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (789 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (2,949 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (9,597 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (997 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,530 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,437 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (105 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation scores 49.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 49.6% — from 31K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
31K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation, White wins 44.3%, draws 9.6% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 31K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 51.3% (3.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.4% in Blitz (21K games) against 47.6% in Rapid (2.4K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 90.4 (decisive), meaning 90.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 42.3%, draws 9.2% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 222 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 44.5%, draws 7.1% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 741 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 44.3%, draws 8.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 44.0%, draws 8.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 44.7%, draws 9.5% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 43.5%, draws 15.6% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 44.9%, draws 7.5% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 44.5%, draws 9.8% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 41.2%, draws 12.8% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 44.2%, draws 20.9% and loses 34.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 149 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense, Rubinstein Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 44.3% of its games and loses 46.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.