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Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin

122K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.8%

45%55%
Floor51.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.0%.

Measured over 122K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 122K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
122K
Best context
53.9% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
47.0% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.8% at 0-999, 51.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (686 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (769 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (273 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,443 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (2,440 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (554 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (5,354 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (5,956 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,367 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (41 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (8,280 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (11,188 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (2,747 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (97 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (9,635 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (14,221 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (3,071 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (126 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (8,674 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (12,732 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (2,477 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (87 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (6,360 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (8,880 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,052 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (5,953 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (4,023 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (299 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,644 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (320 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin scores 51.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.6% and 52.0% — from 122K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
122K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin, Black wins 50.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 122K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.7% in Blitz (61K games) against 50.2% in Rapid (12K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.0%, draws 1.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.9%, draws 2.0% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 46.1%, draws 8.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 51.1%, draws 2.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 49K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 385 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.1% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.