115 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Bernstein Variation, Mar del Plata Gambit has a 55.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.1% and 63.0%), based on 115 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 52%
Best in Rapid (58%), worst in Bullet (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Bernstein Variation, Mar del Plata Gambit has a 37.3% (90% CI: 30.1%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 115 rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Bernstein Variation, Mar del Plata Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 38.3% win rate for white (86 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Bernstein Variation, Mar del Plata Gambit has a sharpness score of 85.8 (moderately decisive), meaning 85.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Lasker Defense, Bernstein Variation, Mar del Plata Gambit is slightly favors black with a 37.3% (90% CI: 30.1%-44.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.