Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense
117K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.6%.
Measured over 117K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 117K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 117K
- Best context
- 52.5% at 1200-1399 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.6% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.6%
- Draws
- 5.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.6% at 0-999, 44.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (118 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (53 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (653 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (310 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.6% expected score (66 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,848 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,724 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (241 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (4,748 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (5,988 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (997 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (8,537 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (14,727 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2,528 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (164 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (8,625 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (20,840 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (4,373 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (275 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (6,253 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (16,268 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (3,167 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (139 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (4,385 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (7,448 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (1,011 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,190 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (528 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (33 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense scores 48.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.1% and 48.6% — from 117K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 117K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 117K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 51.5% (3.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (68K games) against 49.0% in Rapid (12K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 1.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 183 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.7%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.3%, draws 7.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.1%, draws 9.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 68K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.5%, draws 7.0% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 47.4%, draws 11.0% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 630 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.6% of its games and loses 48.9%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.