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Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense

117K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.4%Range (90% confident): 48.1% – 48.6%Based on 117K games
0%48.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.1% – 48.6%
Outcome Distribution
45.6%5.4%48.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Nbd7
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense
Analyzen=117K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.1% and 48.6%), based on 117K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.1% win rate (183 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.9% win rate (1,030 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.1% win rate (3,818 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.0% win rate (11,761 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.7% win rate (25,957 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.8% win rate (34,113 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.7% win rate (25,827 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.3% win rate (12,864 games)
  • 2500+: 42.1% win rate (1,751 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (47%), worst in UltraBullet (11%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 11.1% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 46.9% win rate (36,357 games)
  • Blitz: 45.0% win rate (67,886 games)
  • Rapid: 45.5% win rate (12,428 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (630 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (118 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (653 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (310 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.6% expected score (66 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,848 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,724 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (241 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (4,748 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (5,988 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (997 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (8,537 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (14,727 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2,528 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (164 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (8,625 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (20,840 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (4,373 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (275 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (6,253 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (16,268 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (3,167 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (139 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (4,385 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (7,448 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (1,011 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (528 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (33 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (10)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Botvinnik Variation
47.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line
50.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line
51.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation
50.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack
50.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation
50.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation
46.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation
49.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation
43.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line
46.7%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 117K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.0% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.4%) outperforms Classical (41.6%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 43.6%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 183 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.4%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.9%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.3%) win rate for white (68K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.3%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense has a 41.6% (90% CI: 38.4%-44.8%) win rate for white (630 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.0%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.