Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation
35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.7%.
Measured over 35K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 35K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 35K
- Best context
- 56.9% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 49.5% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.0% at 0-999, 57.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (65 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (47 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 28.8% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (188 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (220 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (53 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (403 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (726 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (200 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (907 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,661 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (415 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,360 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (3,750 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (754 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (77 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,812 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (7,499 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (951 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.1% expected score (59 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,587 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (7,825 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (799 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (1,244 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (1,024 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.7% expected score (50 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation scores 53.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.9% and 53.7% — from 35K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 35K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 35K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.0% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.6% in Blitz (23K games) against 52.7% in Rapid (3.2K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 128 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.6%, draws 2.1% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 461 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.5%, draws 6.2% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.7%, draws 6.6% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.2%, draws 8.7% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.4%, draws 6.4% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.3%, draws 6.8% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 46.4%, draws 12.5% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 187 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.3% of its games and loses 43.8%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.