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Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line

727K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.2%

45%60%
Floor52.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.3%.

Measured over 727K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 727K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
727K
Best context
60.3% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
50.8% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
94.7%
Draws
5.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.6% at 0-999, 56.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (692 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (496 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (125 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (3,897 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (2,633 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (648 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (10,973 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (10,902 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,185 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (26,222 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (33,369 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (6,142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (228 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (46,999 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (77,786 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (12,924 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (738 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (56,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (127,119 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (21,059 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (1,215 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (49,793 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (108,455 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (18,034 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (525 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (41,601 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (46,172 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (5,897 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (9,936 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (2,868 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (153 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line scores 52.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.1% and 52.3% — from 727K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
727K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line, White wins 49.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 727K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.6% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (410K games) against 53.2% in Rapid (67K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 51.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 138K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 206K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 177K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 94K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.4%, draws 8.2% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 247K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.4%, draws 6.0% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 410K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.6%, draws 7.2% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 67K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.4%, draws 8.9% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Normal Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.5% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.