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Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation

35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.7%

45%60%
Floor51.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.1%.

Measured over 35K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 35K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
35K
Best context
56.0% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Worst context
49.0% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 63.4% at 0-999, 57.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 62.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (177 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (110 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (621 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (495 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (100 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 91.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,429 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (1,488 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (287 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (2,545 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,664 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (653 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,937 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (5,336 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,114 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (2,472 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (4,129 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (909 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (2,213 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (2,810 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (436 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 72.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (755 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (289 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line
49.9%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation scores 51.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 52.1% — from 35K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
35K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, White wins 49.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 35K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.8% (1.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (18K games) against 51.8% in Rapid (3.5K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 324 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.1%, draws 11.4% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.7%, draws 6.2% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 43.2%, draws 13.0% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 194 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.3% of its games and loses 46.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.