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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation

72K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.0%Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 46.3%Based on 72K games
0%46.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 46.3%
Outcome Distribution
44.1%3.9%52.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
Analyzen=72K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 46.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.7% and 46.3%), based on 72K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 42% → 32%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.1% win rate (1,291 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.5% win rate (3,518 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.4% win rate (7,726 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.5% win rate (13,135 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.2% win rate (17,308 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.2% win rate (17,843 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (8,855 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.4% win rate (1,884 games)
  • 2500+: 31.5% win rate (127 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.2% win rate (47 games)
  • Bullet: 45.5% win rate (20,026 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (38,876 games)
  • Rapid: 42.1% win rate (12,247 games)
  • Classical: 36.6% win rate (491 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (423 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (684 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (182 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,005 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (1,928 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (582 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (2,272 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (3,949 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (1,450 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (3,720 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (6,811 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (2,466 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (121 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (4,431 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (9,771 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (2,940 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (152 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (10,309 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (2,703 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (151 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (2,366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (4,754 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (1,721 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,023 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (658 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (203 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (115 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 24.1% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 72K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (1.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.0%) outperforms Bullet (52.0%) by 5.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 52.9%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 53.4%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 57.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-64.3%) win rate for white, based on 127 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 11.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.6%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.2%) win rate for white (39K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.7%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a 57.0% (90% CI: 53.3%-60.6%) win rate for white (491 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.