Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation

72K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
3...d5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.0%

40%55%
Floor45.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.3%.

Measured over 72K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 72K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
72K
Best context
48.4% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
39.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.5% at 0-999, 31.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (423 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (684 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (182 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,005 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (1,928 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (582 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (2,272 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (3,949 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (1,450 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (3,720 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (6,811 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (2,466 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (121 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (4,431 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (9,771 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (2,940 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (152 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (10,309 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (2,703 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (151 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (2,366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (4,754 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (1,721 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,023 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (658 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (203 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (115 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 24.1% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation scores 46.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.7% and 46.3% — from 72K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
72K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 72K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 46.9% (7.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.1% in Blitz (39K games) against 44.6% in Rapid (12K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 42.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 31.5%, draws 11.3% and loses 57.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.2%. It rests on 127 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 39K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 36.6%, draws 6.4% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.8%. It rests on 491 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.1% of its games and loses 52.1%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.