Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation
24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.9%.
Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 24K
- Best context
- 60.6% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 52.0% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.1%
- Draws
- 6.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 57.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (64 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (74 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (256 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (492 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (63 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (726 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (2,714 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (355 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (37 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (1,177 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (6,134 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (916 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.0% expected score (37 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (2,039 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (6,332 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (681 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (1,223 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (686 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation scores 54.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.8% and 54.9% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation, White wins 50.9%, draws 6.9% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.0% (1.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.3% in Blitz (16K games) against 54.9% in Rapid (2.1K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.3%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 154 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 817 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.4%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.5%, draws 8.2% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.4%, draws 9.1% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.6%, draws 7.3% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 50.3%, draws 9.1% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Bogoljubow Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.9% of its games and loses 42.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.