253 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Stoltz Variation has a 50.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.7% and 55.9%), based on 253 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 43% → 36%
Best in Bullet (53%), worst in Blitz (42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Stoltz Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 39.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 253 rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Stoltz Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 43.0% win rate for white (95 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (48.9%) outperforms Bullet (40.1%) by 8.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Stoltz Variation has a sharpness score of 90.8 (decisive), meaning 90.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Stoltz Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 42.2%-55.5%) win rate for white (151 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Stoltz Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.6% (90% CI: 39.5%-49.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.