Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation
1.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.5%.
Measured over 1.3K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 9.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.3K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.3K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 40 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 90.7%
- Draws
- 9.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 68.2% at 1000-1199, 46.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 61.3% expected score (34 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (72 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (67 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (94 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (22 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (73 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 36.3% expected score (126 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (134 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (318 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (89 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (94 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation scores 47.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.9% and 49.5% — from 1.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation, White wins 42.5%, draws 9.3% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 1.3K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 56.9% (115 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.2% in Blitz (749 games) against 52.8% in Rapid (89 games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a sharpness score of 90.7 (decisive), meaning 90.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 54.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 115 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.8%, draws 6.7% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 184 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 37.5%, draws 7.8% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 224 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 41.2%, draws 10.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 471 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 36.1%, draws 15.8% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 191 Lichess games, which average 49 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 44.0%, draws 7.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 443 Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 41.1%, draws 10.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 749 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 42.5% of its games and loses 48.2%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.