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Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation

62K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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7.Bxf6
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.1%

45%60%
Floor53.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.4%.

Measured over 62K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 6.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 62K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
62K
Best context
59.6% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
49.9% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
93.3%
Draws
6.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.1% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.0% at 0-999, 50.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 33.1% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (90 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (51 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (517 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (372 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (2,289 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (3,223 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (239 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (4,133 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (12,545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (64 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (4,671 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (16,037 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (2,407 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (58 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (4,092 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (7,791 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (1,077 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (921 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (477 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation scores 54.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.7% and 54.4% — from 62K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
62K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation, White wins 50.7%, draws 6.7% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 62K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.3% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.1% in Blitz (41K games) against 54.0% in Rapid (5.0K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.9%, draws 1.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 151 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 927 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.7%, draws 6.9% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.5%, draws 7.7% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 48.6%, draws 10.0% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.5%, draws 7.2% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 41K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.4%, draws 9.1% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 43.8%, draws 15.0% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 155 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Capablanca Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.7% of its games and loses 42.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.