Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit
874 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.4%.
Measured over 874 games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 874 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 874
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.9%
- Draws
- 5.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (57 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (36 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (117 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (33 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (99 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 39.2% expected score (40 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (63 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (36 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (35 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (44 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (90 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.0% expected score (39 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit scores 44.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.9% and 47.4% — from 874 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 874+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit, Black wins 42.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 874 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 47.8% (181 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 44.2% in Blitz (518 games) against 47.5% in Rapid (135 games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 181 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 41.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 175 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 141 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.4%, draws 9.0% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 138 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 41.0%, draws 6.2% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 217 Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 41.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 518 Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 135 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Knight Defense, Alekhine Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.1% of its games and loses 52.8%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.