Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit
3.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.4%.
Measured over 3.8K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.8K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.8K
- Best context
- 49.1% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.5% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.5%
- Draws
- 8.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.4% at 1000-1199, 34.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 75.8% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (61 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (75 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (152 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (145 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (351 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (109 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (163 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (725 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (103 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (317 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,045 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.7% expected score (72 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (211 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.9% expected score (115 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit scores 48.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.7% and 49.4% — from 3.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit, Black wins 43.8%, draws 8.5% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 3.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.5% (992 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.2% in Blitz (2.5K games) against 45.3% in Rapid (358 games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit has a sharpness score of 91.5 (decisive), meaning 91.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 110 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.2%, draws 6.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 265 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.8% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 612 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.7%, draws 7.6% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 992 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.4%, draws 11.5% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.7%, draws 8.6% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 330 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 958 Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.4%, draws 9.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 39.6%, draws 11.3% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 358 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.8% of its games and loses 47.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.