Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation
300 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.2%.
Measured over 300 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 300 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 300
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 41 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.5%
- Draws
- 8.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 55.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 33.9% expected score (14 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (17 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (60 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (28 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.8% and 53.2% — from 300 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 300+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation, Black wins 44.3%, draws 8.5% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 300 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 51.2% (85 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation has a sharpness score of 91.5 (decisive), meaning 91.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 39.9%, draws 7.5% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 165 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.3% of its games and loses 47.3%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.