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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation

300 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.5%Range (90% confident): 43.8% – 53.2%Based on 300 games
0%48.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.8% – 53.2%
Outcome Distribution
44.3%8.5%47.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...c5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation
Analyzen=300
Avg Length41 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.5%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation has a 48.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.8% and 53.2%), based on 300 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.9% win rate (7 games)
  • 1000-1199: 60.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1200-1399: 35.1% win rate (17 games)
  • 1400-1599: 36.2% win rate (22 games)
  • 1600-1799: 37.3% win rate (32 games)
  • 1800-1999: 39.6% win rate (25 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.2% win rate (35 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.8% win rate (85 games)
  • 2500+: 45.2% win rate (66 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (53%), worst in Blitz (40%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.8% win rate (79 games)
  • Blitz: 39.9% win rate (165 games)
  • Rapid: 43.2% win rate (46 games)
  • Classical: 47.8% win rate (10 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 33.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 42.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 300 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 44.5% win rate for white (85 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (52.6%) outperforms Bullet (40.4%) by 12.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation has a sharpness score of 91.5 (decisive), meaning 91.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 46.2%-58.9%) win rate for white (165 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semmering Variation is slightly favors black with a 47.3% (90% CI: 42.6%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.