Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation
29K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.6%.
Measured over 29K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 29K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 29K
- Best context
- 50.4% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.7% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.6% at 0-999, 40.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (139 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (282 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (78 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (431 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (654 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (202 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (828 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (1,206 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (330 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (30 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,552 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,845 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (506 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (50 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (2,785 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (2,542 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (590 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.6% expected score (33 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (23 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (3,017 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (2,558 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (510 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (2,513 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (1,925 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (277 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (1,864 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (1,265 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (75 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (610 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (162 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation scores 47.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 47.6% — from 29K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 29K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 29K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.1% (6.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.6% in Blitz (12K games) against 45.2% in Rapid (2.6K games).
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 499 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.0%, draws 7.2% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.0%, draws 7.8% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 773 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.3%, draws 1.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 132 Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.8%, draws 5.7% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.
What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 48.4%, draws 8.8% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 107 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Smyslov Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.7% of its games and loses 50.5%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.