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Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation

115K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.1%

40%55%
Floor43.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.4%.

Measured over 115K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 115K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
115K
Best context
51.3% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
37.5% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
94.4%
Draws
5.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.7% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 39.1% at 0-999, 43.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (381 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (403 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (1,958 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (1,479 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (352 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.1% expected score (5,093 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (3,682 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (843 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (136 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (9,629 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (7,318 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (1,540 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (314 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (14,761 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (8,899 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (1,499 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (92 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (145 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (15,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (7,561 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (1,321 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (53 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (9,379 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (5,726 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (755 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (5,585 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (5,291 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (368 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (3,195 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (1,369 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (216 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (110 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation scores 44.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.9% and 44.4% — from 115K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
115K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation, Black wins 41.3%, draws 5.6% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 115K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 48.7% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.2% in Blitz (42K games) against 43.9% in Rapid (7.0K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 38.7%, draws 2.1% and loses 59.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.7%. It rests on 895 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 38.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 58.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.2%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 39.4%, draws 2.3% and loses 58.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 40.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 41.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.4%, draws 6.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 25.1%, draws 42.6% and loses 32.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 51 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 40.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 705 Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 41.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 65K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.1%, draws 6.1% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 42K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 40.7%, draws 6.4% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 31.2%, draws 20.8% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 420 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.3% of its games and loses 53.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.