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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System

391K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.4%

40%55%
Floor45.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.5%.

Measured over 391K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 391K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
391K
Best context
47.5% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
41.3% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.8% at 0-999, 49.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (2,369 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (3,599 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (1,125 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (8,100 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (8,641 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (2,452 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (244 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (19,495 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (17,558 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (3,908 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 33.6% expected score (135 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (603 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (33,792 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (30,970 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (5,641 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (311 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (825 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (48,379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (38,705 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (6,563 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (329 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (312 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (44,793 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (29,767 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (5,161 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (194 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (73 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (27,636 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (15,262 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (2,150 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (62 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (15,588 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (8,799 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (904 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (4,383 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (1,532 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (74 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System scores 45.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.2% and 45.5% — from 391K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
391K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System, Black wins 43.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 391K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 46.6% (25K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.1% in Blitz (155K games) against 42.4% in Rapid (28K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 43.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 95K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.3%, draws 6.6% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.9%, draws 8.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.8%, draws 1.4% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 205K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 155K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 39.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 35.4%, draws 7.9% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.4%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.3% of its games and loses 52.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.