Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation
359 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
58.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 63.1%.
Measured over 359 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 14.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 359 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 359
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 44 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 85.2%
- Draws
- 14.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 1200-1399, 62.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 85.3% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (34 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (57 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (31 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (140 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 76.4% expected score (25 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation scores 58.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.7% and 63.1% — from 359 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 359+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate?
Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation, White wins 51.5%, draws 14.8% and loses 33.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 359 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation perform best?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 60.0% (74 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 85.2 (moderately decisive), meaning 85.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 44 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 46.1%, draws 18.4% and loses 35.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 186 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.1%, draws 16.0% and loses 33.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 271 Lichess games.
Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation a good opening?
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.5% of its games and loses 33.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.