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Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation

1.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.cxd5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.3%

45%60%
Floor53.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.5M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.5M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.5M
Best context
58.4% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
48.4% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +8.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.2% at 0-999, 58.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (4,249 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (3,537 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (950 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (89 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (15,570 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (13,014 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,313 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (682 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (39,001 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (36,955 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (8,465 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (210 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (1,852 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (77,078 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (83,469 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (18,732 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (766 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (1,880 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (135,139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (153,125 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (31,387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (1,640 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (1,024 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (179,380 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (182,190 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (37,969 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (1,664 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.0% expected score (483 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (168,789 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (96,675 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (17,255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (444 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (118,665 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (35,522 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (3,699 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (26,184 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (4,550 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (174 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (28 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (4)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Positional Variation
50.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Reshevsky Variation
52.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Sämisch Variation
51.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Chameleon Variation
46.2%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation scores 53.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.3% and 53.4% — from 1.5M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.9% (31K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.1% in Blitz (609K games) against 53.1% in Rapid (122K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 85K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 182K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 323K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 402K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 284K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.8%, draws 5.8% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 158K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.4%, draws 8.9% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 50.1%, draws 1.8% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 764K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 609K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.1%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 122K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.3%, draws 8.0% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.1% of its games and loses 44.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.