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Scotch Game

47 variations · 41M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Scotch Game gives White a 54.5% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 8.9%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 54.5%Aggregated from 47 variations
0%54.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 54.5%
ContextOverall · n=41M
Outcome Distribution
52.5%3.9%43.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bd2
Scotch Game
Variations47
Games (Context)41M
Avg Length31 moves
Draw Rate3.9%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Scotch Game: Sea-Cadet MateTop Pick
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.c3 dxc3 5.Nxc3 d6 6.Bc4 Bg4 7.O-O Ne5 8.Nxe5 Bxd1 9.Bxf7+ Ke7 10.Nd5#
Min adv +99.7% · n=1.5K
100.0%
#2Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Nxd4 Bc5 5.Be3 Qf6 6.Nb5
Min adv +31.3% · n=71K
66.0%
#3Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Double Pawn Sacrifice
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.c3 dxc3 5.Bc4
Min adv +15.9% · n=1.1M
58.1%
#4Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Nxd4 Qh4 5.Nb5
Min adv +14.3% · n=15K
57.9%
#5Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Bc4
Min adv +11.8% · n=2.4M
56.0%
#6Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 Nxd4 4.Nxd4 exd4 5.Bc4
Min adv +11.2% · n=8.6K
56.5%
#7Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Bc4 Bc5 5.Ng5
Min adv +10.2% · n=643K
55.2%
#8Scotch Game
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4
Min adv +9.5% · n=14M
54.8%
#9Scotch Game: Göring Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.c3
Min adv +9.2% · n=881K
54.7%
#10Scotch Game: Potter Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Nxd4 Bc5 5.Nb3
Min adv +7.1% · n=386K
53.7%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Scotch Game expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Scotch Game family has a 54.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.5% and 54.5%), aggregated from 47 variations and 41M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.3% win rate (2,164,595 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.2% win rate (4,629,274 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.3% win rate (7,216,786 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.0% win rate (8,997,852 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.5% win rate (8,531,878 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.8% win rate (5,891,416 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.4% win rate (2,620,494 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.0% win rate (974,888 games)
  • 2500+: 50.0% win rate (132,082 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~54%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.7% win rate (31,332 games)
  • Bullet: 52.3% win rate (11,150,254 games)
  • Blitz: 52.5% win rate (21,108,469 games)
  • Rapid: 52.9% win rate (8,575,399 games)
  • Classical: 53.2% win rate (293,811 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (1,598 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (592,003 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (1,088,874 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (479,141 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (2,979 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (4,404 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,243,394 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (2,338,260 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (1,028,562 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14,654 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (6,729 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,801,049 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (3,698,847 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (1,667,700 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (42,461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (8,668 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (2,121,275 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (4,733,681 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (2,043,570 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (90,658 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (4,934 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (2,034,845 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (4,562,365 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (1,842,155 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (87,579 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (2,789 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (1,642,242 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (3,089,437 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (1,111,273 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (45,675 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (1,030,671 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (1,237,711 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (342,099 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (8,468 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (616 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (580,498 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (333,797 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (58,883 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (1,094 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (104,277 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (25,497 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (2,016 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (243 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (47)

1
Scotch Game: Sea-Cadet Mate1.5K games
100.0%
2
Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack71K games
66.0%
3
Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Bardeleben Variation184K games
58.4%
Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Double Pawn Sacrifice1.1M games
58.1%
Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack15K games
57.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit1.6M games
57.2%
Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Main Line288K games
57.2%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation244K games
57.1%
Scotch Game: G��ring Gambit, Double Pawn Sacrifice128 games
63.1%
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation8.4M games
56.1%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit2.4M games
56.0%
Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit8.6K games
56.5%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation643K games
55.2%
Scotch Game14M games
54.8%
Scotch Game: Göring Gambit881K games
54.7%
Scotch Game: Benima Defense783K games
54.7%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense498K games
54.6%
Scotch Game: Hanneken Variation137 games
60.5%
Scotch Game: Potter Variation386K games
53.7%
Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation123K games
53.4%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation737K games
53.2%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack16K games
53.7%
Scotch Game: Fraser Variation10K games
53.7%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation3.2M games
52.7%
Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation230K games
52.6%
Scotch Game: Romanishin Variation6.2K games
53.4%
Scotch Game: Tartakower Variation9.3K games
52.9%
Scotch Game: Meitner Variation9.1K games
52.8%
Scotch Game: Vitzthum Attack61K games
52.1%
Scotch Game: Mieses Variation399K games
51.2%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense769K games
51.1%
Scotch Game: Cochrane Variation2.4K games
52.4%
Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit145K games
50.6%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation2.0M games
50.4%
Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack63K games
50.6%
Scotch Game: Braune Variation6.9K games
50.7%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined207K games
49.3%
Scotch Game: G��ring Gambit130 games
54.6%
Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation1.6K games
49.1%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation23K games
47.3%
Scotch Game: Modern Defense134K games
46.7%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Intermezzo Variation708K games
46.2%
Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit50K games
45.2%
Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation189K games
44.1%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Cochrane-Anderssen Variation121K games
43.4%
Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense4.7K games
42.7%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois R��ti Defense106 games
48.6%
Analyze Scotch Game PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game win rate?

The Scotch Game family has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.5%-52.5%) win rate for white, aggregated from 47 variations and 41M rated games from Lichess.

How many Scotch Game variations are there?

This analysis covers 47 Scotch Game variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Scotch Game perform best?

The Scotch Game family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (4.6M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Scotch Game better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.7%) outperforms Bullet (52.3%) by 1.4% across all Scotch Game variations.

How sharp is the Scotch Game?

Scotch Game games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Scotch Game a good opening family?

The Scotch Game family is statistically favors white overall with a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.5%-52.5%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 47 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.