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Analyzer

Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit

50K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.2%Range (90% confident): 44.8% – 45.6%Based on 50K games
0%45.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.8% – 45.6%
Outcome Distribution
43.5%3.4%53.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.e5
Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit
Analyzen=50K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 45.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 44.8% and 45.6%), based on 50K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -9.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.9% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 42% → 33%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.2% win rate (7,890 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.5% win rate (12,215 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.9% win rate (11,260 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.1% win rate (8,963 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.4% win rate (5,668 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.7% win rate (2,639 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.9% win rate (1,013 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.1% win rate (348 games)
  • 2500+: 33.3% win rate (24 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 56.1% win rate (60 games)
  • Bullet: 47.7% win rate (12,746 games)
  • Blitz: 43.3% win rate (22,260 games)
  • Rapid: 40.3% win rate (14,443 games)
  • Classical: 36.8% win rate (511 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (1,610 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (4,394 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (1,880 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (2,310 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (5,779 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (4,069 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,350 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (4,709 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (4,043 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (143 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (2,207 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (3,877 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (2,664 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,944 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (2,372 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (1,247 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (93 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,294 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (878 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (441 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (709 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (213 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (87 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (298 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (24 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Benima Defense
52.7%
Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack
64.2%
Scotch Game: Braune Variation
49.0%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack
51.2%
Analyze Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate?

The Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 43.5% (90% CI: 43.1%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 50K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit perform best?

The Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 44.4% win rate for white (5.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.7%) outperforms Classical (36.8%) by 10.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit?

The Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 42.2% (90% CI: 41.2%-43.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.8%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.1%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 43.1% (90% CI: 42.2%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.3%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.2%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 42.3%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 45.1% (90% CI: 40.7%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 348 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.5%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.7%-43.8%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 40.3% (90% CI: 39.7%-41.0%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a 36.8% (90% CI: 33.3%-40.3%) win rate for white (511 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit is slightly favors black with a 43.5% (90% CI: 43.1%-43.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.