Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack
16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.
Measured over 16K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 16K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 16K
- Best context
- 56.9% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 49.9% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.1%
- Draws
- 4.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.5% at 0-999, 58.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 63.6% expected score (76 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (98 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (46 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (331 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (375 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (123 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (526 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,336 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (333 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (843 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (2,323 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (735 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (58 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (815 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (3,098 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (983 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (95 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (840 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,265 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (418 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.9% expected score (436 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (350 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (176 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 67.5% expected score (290 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.1% expected score (58 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack scores 53.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.0% and 54.3% — from 16K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 16K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate?
Playing the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack, White wins 51.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 16K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack perform best?
The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 66.8% (355 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.2% in Blitz (8.9K games) against 53.2% in Rapid (2.8K games).
How sharp is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack?
The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 56.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 221 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 831 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.1%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 56.4%, draws 7.0% and loses 36.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.9%. It rests on 973 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 62.4%, draws 8.8% and loses 28.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 66.8%. It rests on 355 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.9%, draws 6.4% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 41.9%, draws 10.8% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 198 Lichess games.
Is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack a good opening?
The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.2% of its games and loses 43.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.