Scotch Game

47 variations · 41M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

6.Bd2

Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

54.5%

45%60%

Floor54.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 41M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

52.5%3.9%43.6%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41M games

Rank among the families White can choose here: #4 of 56
Games in this context: 41M
Best context: 59.8% at 2200-2499 Classical
Worst context: 46.2% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Variations measured: 47
Average game length: 31 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

White · Overall

#1Scotch Game: Sea-Cadet MateBest here

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.c3 dxc3 5.Nxc3 d6 6.Bc4 Bg4 7.O-O Ne5 8.Nxe5 Bxd1 9.Bxf7+ Ke7 10.Nd5#

Floor 99.9% · 1.5K games

100.0%

#2Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Nxd4 Bc5 5.Be3 Qf6 6.Nb5

Floor 65.7% · 71K games

66.0%

#3Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Double Pawn Sacrifice

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.c3 dxc3 5.Bc4

Floor 58.0% · 1.1M games

58.1%

#4Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Nxd4 Qh4 5.Nb5

Floor 57.2% · 15K games

57.9%

#5Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Bc4

Floor 55.9% · 2.4M games

56.0%

#6Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 Nxd4 4.Nxd4 exd4 5.Bc4

Floor 55.6% · 8.6K games

56.5%

#7Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Bc4 Bc5 5.Ng5

Floor 55.1% · 643K games

55.2%

#8Scotch Game

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4

Floor 54.8% · 14M games

54.8%

#9Scotch Game: Göring Gambit

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.c3

Floor 54.6% · 881K games

54.7%

#10Scotch Game: Potter Variation

1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Nxd4 Bc5 5.Nb3

Floor 53.6% · 386K games

53.7%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.9%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (1,598 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (592,003 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (1,088,874 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (479,141 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (2,979 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (4,404 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,243,394 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (2,338,260 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (1,028,562 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14,654 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (6,729 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,801,049 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (3,698,847 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (1,667,700 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (42,461 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (8,668 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (2,121,275 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (4,733,681 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (2,043,570 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (90,658 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (4,934 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (2,034,845 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (4,562,365 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (1,842,155 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (87,579 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (2,789 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (1,642,242 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (3,089,437 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (1,111,273 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (45,675 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (1,545 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (1,030,671 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (1,237,711 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (342,099 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (8,468 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (616 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (580,498 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (333,797 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (58,883 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (1,094 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (49 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (104,277 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (25,497 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (2,016 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (243 games)

47 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Scotch Game: Sea-Cadet Mate1.5K games

Winning100.0%Floor 99.9%

Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack71K games

Winning66.0%Floor 65.7%

Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Bardeleben Variation184K games

Winning58.4%Floor 58.2%

Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Double Pawn Sacrifice1.1M games

Winning58.1%Floor 58.0%

Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack15K games

Winning57.9%Floor 57.2%

Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit1.6M games

Winning57.2%Floor 57.1%

Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Main Line288K games

Winning57.2%Floor 57.0%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation244K games

Winning57.1%Floor 56.9%

Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Double Pawn Sacrifice128 games

Winning63.1%Floor 56.1%

Scotch Game: Lolli Variation8.4M games

Winning56.1%Floor 56.0%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit2.4M games

Winning56.0%Floor 55.9%

Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit8.6K games

Winning56.5%Floor 55.6%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation643K games

Winning55.2%Floor 55.1%

Scotch Game14M games

Winning54.8%Floor 54.8%

Scotch Game: Göring Gambit881K games

Winning54.7%Floor 54.6%

Scotch Game: Benima Defense783K games

Winning54.7%Floor 54.6%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense498K games

Winning54.6%Floor 54.5%

Scotch Game: Hanneken Variation137 games

Winning60.5%Floor 53.6%

Scotch Game: Potter Variation386K games

Winning53.7%Floor 53.6%

Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation123K games

Winning53.4%Floor 53.2%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation737K games

Winning53.2%Floor 53.1%

Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack16K games

Winning53.7%Floor 53.0%

Scotch Game: Fraser Variation10K games

Winning53.7%Floor 52.9%

Scotch Game: Classical Variation3.2M games

Winning52.7%Floor 52.7%

Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation230K games

Winning52.6%Floor 52.4%

Scotch Game: Romanishin Variation6.2K games

Winning53.4%Floor 52.3%

Scotch Game: Tartakower Variation9.3K games

Balanced52.9%Floor 52.0%

Scotch Game: Meitner Variation9.1K games

Balanced52.8%Floor 51.9%

Scotch Game: Vitzthum Attack61K games

Balanced52.1%Floor 51.7%

Scotch Game: Mieses Variation399K games

Balanced51.2%Floor 51.0%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense769K games

Balanced51.1%Floor 51.0%

Scotch Game: Cochrane Variation2.4K games

Balanced52.4%Floor 50.7%

Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit145K games

Balanced50.6%Floor 50.4%

Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation2.0M games

Balanced50.4%Floor 50.4%

Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack63K games

Balanced50.6%Floor 50.3%

Scotch Game: Braune Variation6.9K games

Balanced50.7%Floor 49.7%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined207K games

Balanced49.3%Floor 49.1%

Scotch Game: Göring Gambit130 games

Losing54.6%Floor 47.4%

Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation1.6K games

Losing49.1%Floor 47.0%

Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation23K games

Losing47.3%Floor 46.8%

Scotch Game: Modern Defense134K games

Losing46.7%Floor 46.4%

Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Intermezzo Variation708K games

Losing46.2%Floor 46.1%

Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit50K games

Losing45.2%Floor 44.8%

Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation189K games

Losing44.1%Floor 43.9%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Cochrane-Anderssen Variation121K games

Losing43.4%Floor 43.2%

Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense4.7K games

Losing42.7%Floor 41.6%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense106 games

Losing48.6%Floor 40.8%

Analyze Scotch Game PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game family scores 54.5% for White — we are 90% confident it is 54.5% — from 41M Lichess games across 47 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 41M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game win rate?

Across the Scotch Game's 47 variations, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 41M rated games from Lichess.

How many Scotch Game variations are there?

47 Scotch Game variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Scotch Game perform best?

The Scotch Game family performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 54.9% (4.6M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Scotch Game better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Scotch Game scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.6% in Blitz (21M games) against 55.2% in Rapid (8.6M games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game?

Scotch Game games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Scotch Game a good opening family?

The Scotch Game family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 52.5% and loses 43.6%. Results differ between its 47 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.