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Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense

498K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.4%Range (90% confident): 45.3% – 45.5%Based on 498K games
0%45.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.3% – 45.5%
Outcome Distribution
43.8%3.2%53.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bb4+
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense
Analyzen=498K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 45.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.3% and 45.5%), based on 498K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.9 · Trap factor: +23.1 · n=498K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.5% win rate (7,816 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.5% win rate (20,880 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.6% win rate (48,359 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.8% win rate (89,699 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.9% win rate (122,287 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.6% win rate (119,680 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.3% win rate (65,279 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.8% win rate (22,195 games)
  • 2500+: 39.0% win rate (2,005 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (46%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.2% win rate (136 games)
  • Bullet: 44.7% win rate (101,900 games)
  • Blitz: 44.1% win rate (263,211 games)
  • Rapid: 42.6% win rate (126,735 games)
  • Classical: 41.2% win rate (6,218 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (2,395 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (3,158 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (2,231 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.0% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (5,859 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (10,462 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (4,491 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (10,423 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (26,066 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (11,593 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (243 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (15,216 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (50,269 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (23,205 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (983 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (18,643 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (66,142 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (35,210 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (2,259 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (19,268 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (65,531 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (32,769 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (2,092 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (16,447 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (33,694 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (14,608 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (525 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (11,929 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (7,637 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (2,599 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (1,720 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (252 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 498K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense perform best?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 54.7% win rate for white (7.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (52.0%) by 1.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.8%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 54.4% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 48K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 90K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 122K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 120K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 12.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 45.0%-59.0%) win rate for white (136 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.2%) win rate for white (102K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.5%-52.8%) win rate for white (263K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.8%) win rate for white (127K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.8%) win rate for white (6.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense is statistically favors white with a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.