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Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense

498K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.4%

40%55%
Floor45.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.5%.

Measured over 498K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 498K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
498K
Best context
48.1% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
41.6% at 2000-2199 Classical
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.9 · Trap factor: +23.1 · 498K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.6% at 0-999, 50.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (2,395 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (3,158 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (2,231 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.0% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (5,859 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (10,462 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (4,491 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (10,423 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (26,066 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (11,593 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (243 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (15,216 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (50,269 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (23,205 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (983 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (18,643 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (66,142 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (35,210 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (2,259 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (19,268 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (65,531 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (32,769 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (2,092 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (16,447 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (33,694 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (14,608 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (525 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (11,929 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (7,637 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (2,599 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (1,720 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (252 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense scores 45.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.3% and 45.5% — from 498K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
498K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense, Black wins 43.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 498K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense perform best?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 47.0% (22K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.7% in Blitz (263K games) against 44.5% in Rapid (127K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 42.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.2% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 48K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 90K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 122K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 120K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.0%, draws 12.6% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 136 Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 102K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 263K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 127K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.8% of its games and loses 53.0%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.