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Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit

2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

56.0%

45%60%
Floor55.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.4M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.4M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.4M
Best context
67.0% at 2000-2199 Classical
Worst context
54.0% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +13.1% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 56.1% at 0-999, 60.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.9% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (17,188 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (17,551 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (5,394 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (119 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (47,182 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (75,097 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (21,746 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (175 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.1% expected score (356 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (82,700 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (183,830 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (66,816 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (1,095 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (344 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (105,192 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (314,188 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (130,927 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (4,249 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (356 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (109,966 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (349,652 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (166,706 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (8,127 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.1% expected score (141 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (88,129 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (264,750 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (119,077 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (5,452 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (57,001 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (90,436 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (33,451 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 67.0% expected score (653 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 63.8% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (27,358 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (13,208 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3,661 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 75.4% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (3,095 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (281 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 71.3% expected score (29 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Double Pawn Sacrifice
56.7%
Continuations (7)
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense
49.3%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation
51.7%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation
53.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense
53.0%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation
55.8%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined
46.9%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Cochrane-Anderssen Variation
41.8%
Analyze Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit scores 56.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.9% and 56.0% — from 2.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, White wins 54.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit perform best?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 56.8% (182K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 55.8% in Blitz (1.3M games) against 57.5% in Rapid (548K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 53.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 54.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 144K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 54.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 335K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 54.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 555K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 54.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 635K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 53.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 478K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 54.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 182K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 53.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 44K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.4%, draws 6.4% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 60.3%, draws 0.7% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 538K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 53.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 55.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 548K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 57.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 37.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.7%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.2% of its games and loses 42.3%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.