Scotch Game: Classical Variation
3.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 3.2M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.2M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.2M
- Best context
- 53.8% at 1000-1199 Classical
- Worst context
- 41.6% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.8% at 0-999, 41.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (61 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (26,744 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (48,119 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (18,403 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (90 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (157 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (63,681 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (115,468 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (48,699 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (533 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (280 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (108,374 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (219,750 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (92,751 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (2,158 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (330 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (157,127 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (351,498 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (137,703 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (5,815 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (175 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (193,264 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (443,916 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (152,656 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (6,907 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (77 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (177,943 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (359,423 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (111,292 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (4,515 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (62 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (111,726 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (140,710 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (37,949 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (872 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (55,670 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (30,517 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (5,799 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (139 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (8,096 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (1,256 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (132 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation scores 47.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.2% and 47.3% — from 3.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate?
Playing the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 3.2M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scotch Game: Classical Variation perform best?
The Scotch Game: Classical Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.3% (93K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.1% in Blitz (1.7M games) against 47.6% in Rapid (605K games).
How sharp is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation?
The Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 93K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 229K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 423K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 652K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 797K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 653K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 291K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.6%, draws 5.7% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 92K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.8%, draws 7.3% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.1%, draws 1.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 903K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 605K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.5%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
Is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation a good opening?
The Scotch Game: Classical Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.2% of its games and loses 50.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.