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Scotch Game: Lolli Variation

8.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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5.Qxd4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.0%

40%55%
Floor44.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 8.4M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.4M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
8.4M
Best context
46.6% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
Worst context
35.0% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.5%
Draws
4.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −3.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Nxd4 · Black wins: 41.7% · 7.8M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.8% at 0-999, 42.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (281 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (146,797 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (236,345 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (92,142 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (560 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.6% expected score (683 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (328,375 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (596,423 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (216,040 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (2,794 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.0% expected score (888 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (455,996 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (981,523 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (379,088 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (8,324 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (1,042 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (500,588 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (1,161,008 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (455,454 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (18,355 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (620 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (408,901 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (931,128 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (362,491 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (15,281 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (320 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (258,560 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (423,158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (166,970 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (5,392 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (149 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (106,191 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (86,167 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (32,890 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (554 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (32,258 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (7,832 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.0% expected score (2,458 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.3% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (2,628 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (263 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (25 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Double Pawn Sacrifice
56.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Lolli Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation scores 44.0% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 44.0% — from 8.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
8.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation, Black wins 41.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 8.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Lolli Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 45.6% (476K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 43.8% in Blitz (4.4M games) against 43.0% in Rapid (1.7M games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation?

The Scotch Game: Lolli Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 476K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 1.8M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 2.1M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 41.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 40.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 854K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.0%, draws 5.9% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 226K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.6%, draws 6.3% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.4%, draws 7.6% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 41.3%, draws 1.4% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 2.2M Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 41.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 4.4M Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 40.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 38.8%, draws 5.8% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 51K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Lolli Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Lolli Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.7% of its games and loses 53.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.