Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit

1.6M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

View As

Tough Sell

Black Expected Score42.8%Range (90% confident): 42.8% – 42.9%Based on 1.6M games

0%42.8%100%

Range (90% confident): 42.8% – 42.9%

Outcome Distribution

41.3%3.0%55.7%

Win

Draw

Loss

4...Bc5

Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit

Analyzen=1.6M

Avg Length30 moves

Sharpness97%

Draw Rate3.0%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 42.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.8% and 42.9%), based on 1.6M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +2.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.9 · Trap factor: +13.7 · n=1.6M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 44%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (42%), worst in UltraBullet (37%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 28.3% expected score (33 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14,395 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (16,638 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (8,684 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (60 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 33.9% expected score (101 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.5% expected score (37,503 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (53,396 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (19,573 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (317 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (158 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (66,423 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (124,166 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (47,667 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (931 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 34.2% expected score (169 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (84,276 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (206,719 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (84,204 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (2,508 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (169 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (86,125 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (223,251 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (93,689 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (3,662 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.7% expected score (63 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (71,369 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (161,397 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (59,132 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (2,189 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (50,717 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (58,966 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (15,946 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.2% expected score (304 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (26,692 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (11,142 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (1,897 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 19.2% expected score (18 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (5,065 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (455 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Scotch Game

52.9%

Variations (5)

Scotch Game: Lolli Variation

53.8%

Scotch Game: Classical Variation

50.6%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit

54.2%

Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation

47.9%

Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Double Pawn Sacrifice

56.7%

Analyze Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate?

The Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.6%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit perform best?

The Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 56.9% win rate for white (378K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (62.0%) outperforms Blitz (55.4%) by 6.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit?

The Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 111K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.7%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 239K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 56.9% (90% CI: 56.8%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 378K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 56.0%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 407K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.5%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 294K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 126K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 62.0% (90% CI: 59.0%-64.9%) win rate for white (738 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.6%-55.8%) win rate for white (443K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.3%-55.5%) win rate for white (856K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 56.4% (90% CI: 56.2%-56.5%) win rate for white (331K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.6%-57.3%) win rate for white (10.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit is statistically favors white with a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.6%-55.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit expected score for Black?