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Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation

2.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.7%

45%55%
Floor49.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.0M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.0M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.0M
Best context
55.5% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
44.6% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.1%
Draws
4.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.9% at 0-999, 50.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.7% expected score (50 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (22,725 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (40,147 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (13,948 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.9% expected score (89 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (137 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (50,822 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (90,726 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (40,763 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 62.7% expected score (447 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (184 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (75,523 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (137,179 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (68,471 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (1,685 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.1% expected score (200 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (96,612 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (181,416 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (82,532 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (4,378 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.2% expected score (140 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (103,690 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (207,355 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (79,933 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (4,499 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (66 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (95,615 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (184,679 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (57,234 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (3,149 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (73,049 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (111,081 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (26,277 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (958 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (43 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (60,824 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (46,610 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (7,524 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (198 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (17,445 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (4,893 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (616 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.9% expected score (139 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Scotch Game: Göring Gambit, Double Pawn Sacrifice
56.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation scores 49.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.6% and 49.7% — from 2.0M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.0M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 2.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.6% (77K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.4% in Blitz (1.0M games) against 51.4% in Rapid (377K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation?

The Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 77K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 183K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 283K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 365K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 396K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 341K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 6.2% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 211K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.2%, draws 7.7% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 115K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.9%, draws 14.1% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 888 Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 596K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 1.0M Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 377K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 49.7%, draws 7.4% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.2% of its games and loses 47.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.