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Scotch Game: Mieses Variation

399K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.2%

45%55%
Floor51.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.3%.

Measured over 399K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 399K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
399K
Best context
53.7% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
45.5% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.0%
Draws
5.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.7% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.8% at 0-999, 54.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (4,470 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (7,119 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (2,018 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (8,682 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (18,646 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (7,755 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (10,770 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (25,768 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (14,275 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (289 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (12,879 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (29,503 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (15,262 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (759 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (13,347 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (32,665 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (13,044 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (797 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (13,267 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (30,652 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (9,379 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (757 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (13,637 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (36,507 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (7,650 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (353 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (16,609 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (34,043 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (5,759 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (140 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (6,638 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (4,860 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (468 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (48 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Mieses Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation scores 51.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.0% and 51.3% — from 399K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
399K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation, White wins 48.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 399K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Mieses Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.0% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.4% in Blitz (220K games) against 50.1% in Rapid (76K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation?

The Scotch Game: Mieses Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.3%, draws 7.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 45.0%, draws 15.9% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 54.2%, draws 1.1% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 136 Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 100K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 220K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 76K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 42.5%, draws 8.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Mieses Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Mieses Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.7% of its games and loses 46.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.