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Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit

50K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.2%

40%55%
Floor44.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.6%.

Measured over 50K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 50K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
50K
Best context
51.2% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
41.3% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: −9.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.9% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 40.7%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (1,610 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (4,394 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (1,880 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (2,310 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (5,779 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (4,069 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,350 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (4,709 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (4,043 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (143 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (2,207 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (3,877 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (2,664 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,944 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (2,372 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (1,247 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (93 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,294 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (878 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (441 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (709 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (213 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (87 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (298 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (24 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit scores 45.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.8% and 45.6% — from 50K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
50K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit, White wins 43.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 50K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit perform best?

The Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 46.7% (2.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.1% in Blitz (22K games) against 42.3% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit?

The Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 42.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 43.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 43.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 43.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 44.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 44.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 44.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 45.1%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 348 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 43.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 40.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 36.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 58.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.0%. It rests on 511 Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 43.5% of its games and loses 53.1%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.