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Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit

8.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

56.5%

45%65%
Floor55.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.4%.

Measured over 8.6K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.6K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
8.6K
Best context
59.5% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Worst context
55.1% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.3% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 62.9% at 0-999, 50.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (155 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (360 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (212 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (277 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (691 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (324 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (955 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (580 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (331 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (939 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (600 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (307 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (742 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (230 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (383 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (187 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (163 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.3% expected score (40 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (118 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 67.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit scores 56.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.6% and 57.4% — from 8.6K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
8.6K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit, White wins 54.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 8.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit perform best?

The Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 57.3% (1.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 56.6% in Blitz (4.3K games) against 58.7% in Rapid (2.3K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit?

The Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 56.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 729 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 55.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 55.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 52.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 55.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 53.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 768 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 54.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 390 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 59.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.4%. It rests on 143 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 54.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 56.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.7% of its games and loses 41.7%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.