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Scotch Game: Potter Variation

386K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.7%

45%60%
Floor53.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.8%.

Measured over 386K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 386K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
386K
Best context
56.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
48.9% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.7% at 0-999, 56.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (686 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (887 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (649 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (2,411 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (2,959 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (1,401 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (5,170 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (8,168 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (3,225 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (93 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (11,304 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (21,324 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (7,159 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (16,667 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (38,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (11,457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (867 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (24,250 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (58,174 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (15,411 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (948 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (25,362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (53,859 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (11,813 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (495 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (24,687 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (24,646 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (4,158 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (6,279 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (2,569 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.0% expected score (155 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Potter Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation scores 53.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.6% and 53.8% — from 386K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
386K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Potter Variation, White wins 51.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 386K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Potter Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Potter Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.2% (9.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.6% in Blitz (211K games) against 53.9% in Rapid (55K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation?

The Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.3%, draws 2.3% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 99K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 92K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.1%, draws 8.1% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 117K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 211K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 55K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 52.6%, draws 6.4% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Potter Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.7% of its games and loses 44.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.