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Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation

230K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.4%

40%55%
Floor47.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.6%.

Measured over 230K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 230K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
230K
Best context
53.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
44.3% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.5 · Trap factor: +5.3 · 230K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.5% at 0-999, 42.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (3,175 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (11,646 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (7,519 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (4,969 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (16,205 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (10,685 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (199 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (5,976 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (20,546 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (11,636 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (417 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (7,047 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (22,678 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (11,737 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (735 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (6,115 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (21,148 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (9,724 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (5,706 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (13,538 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (5,279 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (278 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (5,243 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (8,822 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (2,239 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (76 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (5,954 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (5,952 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (539 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,046 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (948 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 24.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation scores 47.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.3% and 47.6% — from 230K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
230K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 230K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 52.4% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.6% in Blitz (121K games) against 46.1% in Rapid (59K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation?

The Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.1%, draws 5.5% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.9%, draws 6.9% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.1%, draws 7.5% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 130 Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 46K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 121K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 59K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 42.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.2% of its games and loses 50.4%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.