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Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation

737K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.2%

45%60%
Floor53.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.3%.

Measured over 737K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 737K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
737K
Best context
59.0% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
46.8% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +15.3% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.1% · UltraBullet best · Blitz worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.6% at 0-999, 51.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (6,656 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (5,352 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (2,348 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (17,870 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (21,248 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (7,472 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (103 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (91 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (29,766 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (48,034 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (18,568 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (443 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (35,828 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (79,422 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (31,450 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (62 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (39,044 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (95,220 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (38,176 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (1,899 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (31,596 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (78,794 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (31,535 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (22,280 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (37,788 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (11,637 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (266 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (16,824 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (14,346 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (2,710 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (5,314 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,592 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation scores 53.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.1% and 53.3% — from 737K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
737K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation, White wins 51.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 737K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 58.0% (47K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.8% in Blitz (382K games) against 53.8% in Rapid (144K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 56.3%, draws 1.9% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 57.0%, draws 2.0% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 56.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 97K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 54.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 148K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 174K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 143K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 46.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.5%, draws 6.7% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 59.3%, draws 1.4% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.0%. It rests on 330 Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 205K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 382K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 144K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.7% of its games and loses 45.3%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.