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Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation

123K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.4%

45%60%
Floor53.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.7%.

Measured over 123K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 123K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
123K
Best context
58.9% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Worst context
50.0% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.4% at 0-999, 55.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,609 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1,520 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (230 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (4,532 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (7,395 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (1,264 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (5,678 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (16,279 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (4,414 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (6,691 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (20,197 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (7,635 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (5,274 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (17,255 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (6,762 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (214 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (2,572 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (7,903 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (2,629 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (87 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (988 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (1,081 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (422 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (224 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation scores 53.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.2% and 53.7% — from 123K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
123K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 123K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 55.5% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.5% in Blitz (72K games) against 53.2% in Rapid (23K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation?

The Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 49.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.6%, draws 5.8% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.2%, draws 6.6% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 46.6%, draws 6.4% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 270 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 72K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 53.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 505 Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.1% of its games and loses 44.3%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.