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Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined

207K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.8%

45%55%
Floor50.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.0%.

Measured over 207K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 207K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
207K
Best context
56.6% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Worst context
40.4% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +6.4% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.8% at 0-999, 41.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (779 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (1,704 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (687 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,578 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (2,709 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (1,200 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 60.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (3,042 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (5,083 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,008 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (74 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (4,922 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (9,308 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (3,390 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (147 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (8,049 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (15,734 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (5,064 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (203 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (14,037 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (25,693 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (5,865 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (404 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (20,630 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (29,091 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (4,552 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (160 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 37.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (21,485 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (12,857 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (1,465 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (4,590 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (579 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined scores 50.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.6% and 51.0% — from 207K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
207K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 207K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined perform best?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 54.3% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.8% in Blitz (103K games) against 53.1% in Rapid (24K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 52.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.4%, draws 6.9% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.4%, draws 1.9% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 281 Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 79K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 103K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 50.3%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 49.7%, draws 6.9% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.4% of its games and loses 46.9%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.