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Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation

244K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.0%Range (90% confident): 42.8% – 43.1%Based on 244K games
0%43.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.8% – 43.1%
Outcome Distribution
41.7%2.6%55.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Ng4
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation
Analyzen=244K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.6%

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 43.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.8% and 43.1%), based on 244K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.0% win rate (4,356 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.3% win rate (16,789 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.3% win rate (38,680 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.3% win rate (61,319 games)
  • 1600-1799: 40.4% win rate (65,231 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.5% win rate (38,089 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.4% win rate (12,957 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.2% win rate (5,551 games)
  • 2500+: 47.5% win rate (1,193 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.4% win rate (38 games)
  • Bullet: 42.4% win rate (70,042 games)
  • Blitz: 41.6% win rate (125,086 games)
  • Rapid: 40.8% win rate (47,372 games)
  • Classical: 37.4% win rate (1,627 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (2,159 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,562 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (631 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (6,802 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (7,569 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (2,385 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (12,711 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (19,443 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (6,381 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (140 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (15,201 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (33,644 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (12,060 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (397 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (15,017 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (34,883 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (14,708 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (617 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (9,785 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (19,144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (8,777 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (381 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,847 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (6,029 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (2,029 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (51 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,609 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (2,541 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (390 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (911 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (271 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 55.6%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 244K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 57.1% win rate for white (65K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (58.6%) outperforms Blitz (55.6%) by 3.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 56.7% (90% CI: 56.3%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 56.4% (90% CI: 56.1%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.8%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 43.5%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.6%-56.2%) win rate for white (70K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 55.3%-55.8%) win rate for white (125K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.5%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a 58.6% (90% CI: 56.6%-60.6%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation is statistically favors white with a 55.8% (90% CI: 55.6%-55.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.