Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation
244K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
43.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.1%.
Measured over 244K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 244K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 244K
- Best context
- 52.4% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 39.0% at 1600-1799 Classical
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.4%
- Draws
- 2.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.9% at 0-999, 51.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (2,159 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,562 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (631 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (6,802 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (7,569 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (2,385 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (12,711 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (19,443 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (6,381 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (140 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (15,201 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (33,644 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (12,060 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (397 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (15,017 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (34,883 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (14,708 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (617 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (9,785 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (19,144 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (8,777 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (381 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,847 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (6,029 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (2,029 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (51 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,609 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (2,541 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (390 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (911 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (271 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation scores 43.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.8% and 43.1% — from 244K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 244K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate?
Playing the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation, Black wins 41.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 244K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation perform best?
The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 51.0% (5.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 43.0% in Blitz (125K games) against 42.4% in Rapid (47K games).
How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation?
The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 1.5% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.3%, draws 1.8% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.3%, draws 2.2% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 40.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 47.5%, draws 6.7% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 42.4%, draws 1.7% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 70K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 41.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 125K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 58.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.4%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation a good opening?
The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.7% of its games and loses 55.8%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.