Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack
63K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.9%.
Measured over 63K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 63K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 63K
- Best context
- 56.9% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.3% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.4%
- Draws
- 4.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 49.2%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (176 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (266 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (79 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (743 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,016 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (289 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (1,776 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,096 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (784 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (3,020 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (6,872 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (2,215 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (58 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (4,188 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (10,482 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (3,402 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (144 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (3,905 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (9,380 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (3,089 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (161 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,238 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (3,208 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (1,014 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (876 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (511 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (184 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (85 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (63 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack scores 50.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.3% and 50.9% — from 63K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 63K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate?
Playing the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 63K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack perform best?
The Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.6% (1.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.2% in Blitz (35K games) against 48.6% in Rapid (11K games).
How sharp is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack?
The Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 521 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.5%, draws 6.1% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.8%, draws 12.7% and loses 35.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 152 Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 45.4%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 43.0%, draws 8.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 404 Lichess games.
Is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack a good opening?
The Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.3% of its games and loses 47.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.