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Scotch Game: Modern Defense

134K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.4%

45%60%
Floor53.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.6%.

Measured over 134K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 134K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
134K
Best context
59.6% at 0-999 Blitz
Worst context
42.6% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.4 · Trap factor: −6.9 · 134K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.5% at 0-999, 36.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (336 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (579 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (205 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,161 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (1,968 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (870 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (2,492 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (4,826 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (2,193 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (50 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (4,348 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (10,559 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (4,251 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.7% expected score (277 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (6,358 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (18,936 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (6,089 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (418 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (7,270 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (20,063 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (6,646 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (6,725 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (11,937 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (3,388 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (105 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (5,469 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (4,497 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (648 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (1,008 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (210 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 25.9% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Modern Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense scores 53.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.2% and 53.6% — from 134K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
134K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Modern Defense, Black wins 51.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 134K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Modern Defense perform best?

The Scotch Game: Modern Defense performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 58.5% (9.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.1% in Blitz (74K games) against 53.7% in Rapid (24K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense?

The Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 58.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 56.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 56.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.5%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 55.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 52.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 50.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 74K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 51.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 52.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Modern Defense is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.2% of its games and loses 44.5%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.