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Scotch Game: Modern Defense

134K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score53.4%Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 53.6%Based on 134K games
0%53.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 53.6%
Outcome Distribution
51.2%4.3%44.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bb4
Scotch Game: Modern Defense
Analyzen=134K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 53.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 53.2% and 53.6%), based on 134K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.4 · Trap factor: -6.9 · n=134K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 58% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 58.1% win rate (1,122 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.6% win rate (4,010 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.9% win rate (9,561 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.3% win rate (19,435 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.6% win rate (31,801 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (34,288 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.7% win rate (22,155 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.5% win rate (10,628 games)
  • 2500+: 39.8% win rate (1,231 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~53%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.0% win rate (35,167 games)
  • Blitz: 50.8% win rate (73,575 games)
  • Rapid: 51.1% win rate (24,303 games)
  • Classical: 52.8% win rate (1,186 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (336 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (579 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (205 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,161 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (1,968 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (870 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (2,492 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (4,826 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (2,193 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (50 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (4,348 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (10,559 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (4,251 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.7% expected score (277 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (6,358 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (18,936 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (6,089 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (418 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (7,270 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (20,063 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (6,646 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (6,725 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (11,937 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (3,388 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (105 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (5,469 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (4,497 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (648 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (1,008 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (210 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 25.9% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate?

The Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 134K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Modern Defense perform best?

The Scotch Game: Modern Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (44.9%) outperforms Classical (41.0%) by 3.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense?

The Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 39.8% (90% CI: 37.4%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 40.8% (90% CI: 39.5%-42.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 39.9% (90% CI: 39.1%-40.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 41.1% (90% CI: 40.6%-41.7%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.6%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 55.3% (90% CI: 53.0%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.3%) win rate for white (35K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.3%-44.9%) win rate for white (74K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.3%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Modern Defense has a 41.0% (90% CI: 38.6%-43.3%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Scotch Game: Modern Defense a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Modern Defense is slightly favors black with a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-44.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.