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Scotch Game: Fraser Variation

10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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5.Nf3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.7%

45%60%
Floor52.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.5%.

Measured over 10K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
10K
Best context
60.2% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
48.3% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.9% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.9% at 0-999, 72.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 62.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (472 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (275 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (231 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (652 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (390 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (303 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (807 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (428 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (426 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (778 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (396 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (595 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (883 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (298 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (630 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (793 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (163 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (504 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (573 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (69 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (247 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (107 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Fraser Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation scores 53.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.9% and 54.5% — from 10K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
10K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 10K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Fraser Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 56.3% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (5.1K games) against 50.2% in Rapid (2.0K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation?

The Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 55.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 902 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 53.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 370 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 57.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Fraser Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.8% of its games and loses 44.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.