Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit
145K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.8%.
Measured over 145K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 145K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 145K
- Best context
- 55.1% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.5% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 44.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (2,071 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (3,200 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (1,482 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (4,719 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (7,838 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (2,438 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (7,228 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (13,452 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (4,437 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (111 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (8,045 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (17,163 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (5,603 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (239 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (8,293 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (15,756 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (4,466 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (201 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (6,583 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (10,663 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2,262 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (77 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (4,872 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (5,314 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (634 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (219 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (5,235 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,453 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (101 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (502 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (155 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit scores 50.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.4% and 50.8% — from 145K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 145K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate?
Playing the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 145K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit perform best?
The Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.1% (6.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.6% in Blitz (75K games) against 48.8% in Rapid (21K games).
How sharp is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit?
The Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.2%, draws 7.0% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 661 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 54.1%, draws 0.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 127 Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 75K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 46.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 47.3%, draws 6.7% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 899 Lichess games.
Is the Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit a good opening?
The Scotch Game: Relfsson Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.8% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.