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Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense

4.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

57.3%

45%65%
Floor56.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.5%.

Measured over 4.7K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 8.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.7K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
4.7K
Best context
60.7% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Worst context
54.1% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
91.6%
Draws
8.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +21.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 98.5 · Trap factor: −33.2 · 4.7K games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.9% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.7% at 0-999, 38.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (98 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (84 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (161 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (204 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (144 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 71.8% expected score (95 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 75.6% expected score (112 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 61.7% expected score (131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (386 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 69.6% expected score (159 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 64.8% expected score (201 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.7% expected score (709 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (173 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (369 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (665 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (106 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (369 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (146 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense scores 57.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.1% and 58.5% — from 4.7K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
4.7K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense, Black wins 53.1%, draws 8.4% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 4.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense perform best?

The Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 63.1% (695 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 56.3% in Blitz (2.7K games) against 65.4% in Rapid (845 games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense?

The Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a sharpness score of 91.6 (decisive), meaning 91.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 52.0%, draws 8.7% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 188 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 226 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.4%, draws 8.0% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 280 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 57.8%, draws 8.6% and loses 33.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.1%. It rests on 295 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 61.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 33.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.1%. It rests on 308 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 59.5%, draws 7.1% and loses 33.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.1%. It rests on 695 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 58.2%, draws 6.9% and loses 34.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.7%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.5%, draws 10.2% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 36.4%, draws 13.4% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 516 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.4%, draws 7.7% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 51.7%, draws 9.1% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 61.7%, draws 7.4% and loses 30.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.4%. It rests on 845 Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 53.1% of its games and loses 38.5%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.