4.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 57.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 56.1% and 58.5%), based on 4.7K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 52% → 36%
Best in Rapid (62%), worst in Bullet (49%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 38.5% (90% CI: 37.4%-39.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K rated games from Lichess.
The Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.1% win rate for white (516 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (42.8%) outperforms Classical (32.0%) by 10.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a sharpness score of 91.6 (decisive), meaning 91.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 39.3% (90% CI: 33.6%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 188 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 41.8%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 226 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 39.6% (90% CI: 34.9%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 280 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 33.6% (90% CI: 29.1%-38.1%) win rate for white, based on 295 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 33.4% (90% CI: 29.1%-37.9%) win rate for white, based on 308 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 33.4% (90% CI: 30.5%-36.3%) win rate for white, based on 695 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 34.9% (90% CI: 32.6%-37.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 40.3% (90% CI: 38.0%-42.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 10.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 516 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 13.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 42.8% (90% CI: 40.5%-45.2%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.
In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 39.2% (90% CI: 37.6%-40.7%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.
In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense has a 30.9% (90% CI: 28.3%-33.5%) win rate for white (845 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.
The Scotch Game: Cochrane-Shumov Defense is slightly favors black with a 38.5% (90% CI: 37.4%-39.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.