Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation
189K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.1%.
Measured over 189K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 189K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 189K
- Best context
- 59.2% at 0-999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 47.7% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.9%
- Draws
- 5.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 67.1% at 0-999, 47.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (1,438 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (2,712 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (1,272 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (3,611 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (5,634 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (3,206 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (54 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (6,012 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (10,429 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (5,019 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (175 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (8,982 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (17,574 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (7,200 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (382 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (11,754 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (25,605 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (7,584 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (432 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (12,276 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (22,257 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (5,580 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (226 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (10,062 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (9,406 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (1,863 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (6,005 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,540 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (213 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (630 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation scores 55.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.8% and 56.1% — from 189K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 189K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate?
Playing the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation, Black wins 53.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 189K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation perform best?
The Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 57.3% (5.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 56.0% in Blitz (95K games) against 56.3% in Rapid (32K games).
How sharp is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation?
The Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 55.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 53.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 54.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 53.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 53.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 52.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 50.0%, draws 6.1% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 45.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 669 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 53.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 53.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 95K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 53.4%, draws 5.8% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 56.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 38.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
Is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation a good opening?
The Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 53.3% of its games and loses 41.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.