Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack
15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
57.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.5%.
Measured over 15K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 15K
- Best context
- 60.8% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 55.1% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.6% at 0-999, 59.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (48 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (62 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 69.3% expected score (105 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (83 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.1% expected score (175 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 65.5% expected score (350 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (144 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (501 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (1,141 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 63.0% expected score (272 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (960 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (2,346 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.8% expected score (531 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (35 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (1,158 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (2,916 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (495 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 81.1% expected score (29 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (1,538 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (1,439 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (168 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (238 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (60 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack scores 57.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 57.2% and 58.5% — from 15K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 15K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate?
Playing the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack, White wins 56.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 15K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack perform best?
The Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 63.2% (677 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 57.8% in Blitz (8.4K games) against 61.0% in Rapid (1.8K games).
How sharp is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack?
The Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 55.9%, draws 1.3% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 112 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 62.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 35.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.6%. It rests on 257 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 61.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 35.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.2%. It rests on 677 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 57.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 55.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 56.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 306 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 55.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 58.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.0%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
What is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 60.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 36.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.1%. It rests on 102 Lichess games.
Is the Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack a good opening?
The Scotch Game: Horwitz Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 56.0% of its games and loses 40.3%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.