TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation

23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
Black Expected Score52.7%Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 53.2%Based on 23K games
0%52.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 53.2%
Outcome Distribution
50.6%4.2%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Qg6
Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation
Analyzen=23K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 52.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.1% and 53.2%), based on 23K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~50%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.8% win rate (106 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.2% win rate (417 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.2% win rate (1,066 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.4% win rate (2,461 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.0% win rate (4,652 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.6% win rate (6,446 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.7% win rate (4,527 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.2% win rate (2,434 games)
  • 2500+: 48.2% win rate (400 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (51%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 50.5% win rate (5,844 games)
  • Blitz: 51.0% win rate (12,730 games)
  • Rapid: 49.2% win rate (3,799 games)
  • Classical: 49.8% win rate (134 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (203 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (149 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (63 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (406 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (505 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (153 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (525 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,472 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (441 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (804 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (2,963 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (857 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (1,084 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (3,982 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,333 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (47 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,334 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (2,453 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (717 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (1,123 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (213 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (324 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 23K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 46.2% win rate for white (4.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.6%) outperforms Classical (44.6%) by 2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 40.0%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 106 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 41.3%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 417 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 40.6%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.6%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 41.5%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 41.1%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 400 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.6%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.2%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.5%-47.2%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 37.7%-51.7%) win rate for white (134 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.