TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack

63K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.6%Range (90% confident): 50.3% – 50.9%Based on 63K games
0%50.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.3% – 50.9%
Outcome Distribution
48.3%4.6%47.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Bb5
Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack
Analyzen=63K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 50.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.3% and 50.9%), based on 63K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.6% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.9% win rate (521 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.0% win rate (2,050 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.1% win rate (5,667 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.6% win rate (12,165 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.3% win rate (18,216 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.0% win rate (16,536 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.7% win rate (6,483 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.5% win rate (1,576 games)
  • 2500+: 51.8% win rate (152 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 51.6% win rate (17,007 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (34,894 games)
  • Rapid: 45.4% win rate (11,060 games)
  • Classical: 43.0% win rate (404 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (176 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (79 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (743 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,016 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (289 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (1,776 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,096 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (784 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (3,020 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (6,872 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (2,215 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (4,188 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (10,482 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (3,402 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (3,905 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (9,380 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (3,089 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (161 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,238 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (3,208 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (1,014 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (876 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (511 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (184 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (85 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (63 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit
43.5%
Scotch Game: Benima Defense
52.7%
Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack
64.2%
Scotch Game: Braune Variation
49.0%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Analyze Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate?

The Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 63K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack perform best?

The Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (43.0%) by 8.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack?

The Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 47.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 521 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.1%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 51.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 152 Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 12.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.2%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.1%) win rate for white (35K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.2%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack has a 43.0% (90% CI: 39.0%-47.1%) win rate for white (404 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.

Is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Paulsen Attack is statistically balanced with a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.