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Scotch Game: Classical Variation

3.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.7%Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 52.8%Based on 3.2M games
0%52.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 52.8%
Outcome Distribution
50.6%4.2%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bc5
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
Analyzen=3.2M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 52.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.7% and 52.8%), based on 3.2M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (93,417 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.5% win rate (228,538 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.6% win rate (423,313 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.0% win rate (652,473 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.0% win rate (796,918 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (653,250 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (291,319 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.6% win rate (92,147 games)
  • 2500+: 52.8% win rate (9,491 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.8% win rate (1,164 games)
  • Bullet: 51.1% win rate (902,625 games)
  • Blitz: 50.7% win rate (1,710,657 games)
  • Rapid: 49.9% win rate (605,384 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (21,036 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (26,744 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (48,119 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (18,403 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (90 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (157 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (63,681 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (115,468 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (48,699 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (533 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (280 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (108,374 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (219,750 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (92,751 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (2,158 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (330 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (157,127 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (351,498 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (137,703 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (5,815 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (175 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (193,264 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (443,916 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (152,656 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (6,907 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (77 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (177,943 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (359,423 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (111,292 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (4,515 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (62 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (111,726 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (140,710 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (37,949 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (872 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 62.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (55,670 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (30,517 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (5,799 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.0% expected score (139 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (8,096 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (1,256 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (132 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit
43.5%
Scotch Game: Benima Defense
52.7%
Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack
64.2%
Scotch Game: Braune Variation
49.0%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack
51.2%
Continuations (3)
Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack
51.2%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Intermezzo Variation
44.2%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Millennium Variation
45.2%
Analyze Scotch Game: Classical Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Classical Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (9.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.1%) outperforms Classical (47.4%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 93K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 229K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 423K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 652K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 797K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 653K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 291K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 92K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-53.2%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.2%) win rate for white (903K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.7%) win rate for white (1.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white (605K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.0%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

Is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.