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Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 54.3%Based on 16K games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 54.3%
Outcome Distribution
51.2%4.9%43.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Qd2
Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack
Analyzen=16K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 53.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 54.3%), based on 16K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.9% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 55% → 62%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.4% win rate (59 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.4% win rate (221 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.7% win rate (831 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.3% win rate (2,214 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.9% win rate (3,959 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.4% win rate (4,991 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.1% win rate (2,534 games)
  • 2200-2499: 56.4% win rate (973 games)
  • 2500+: 62.4% win rate (355 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (56%), worst in Classical (42%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 55.8% win rate (4,182 games)
  • Blitz: 49.7% win rate (8,928 games)
  • Rapid: 49.9% win rate (2,829 games)
  • Classical: 41.9% win rate (198 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 63.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (98 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (46 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (331 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (375 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (123 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (526 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,336 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (333 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (843 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (2,323 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (735 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (815 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (3,098 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (983 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (95 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (840 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (418 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.9% expected score (436 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (350 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (176 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 67.5% expected score (290 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.1% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit
43.5%
Scotch Game: Benima Defense
52.7%
Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack
64.2%
Scotch Game: Braune Variation
49.0%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Analyze Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack perform best?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 62.4% win rate for white (355 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.8%) outperforms Classical (41.9%) by 13.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 56.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-61.8%) win rate for white, based on 221 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 52.7% (90% CI: 49.8%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 831 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.5%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 56.4% (90% CI: 53.8%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 973 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 62.4% (90% CI: 58.2%-66.6%) win rate for white, based on 355 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 55.8% (90% CI: 54.5%-57.0%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.5%) win rate for white (8.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.4%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack has a 41.9% (90% CI: 36.2%-47.6%) win rate for white (198 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.8%.

Is the Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.